Will small-cap growth be the best stock market factor in the US in 2024?
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Ṁ2070Jan 1
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If the total return for the ETF IWO (Russell 2000 Growth) outperforms the IVE, IVW, and IWN in 2024, this market settles to YES. I will use Koyfin's total return.
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bought Ṁ20 NO11mo
Hard to argue with this logic: https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1755624511263723756
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
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