Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?
16
1kṀ17252026
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves subjectively, based on my analysis of benchmarks both official, third party, and my own.
Some examples of benchmarks I consider are MMLU, ZebraLogic, SWE-bench, simplebench, ARC, and livebench.
Some of my own evals are game-playing (tic-tac-toe, and connect 4), and creative writing (giving a model 3 random nouns and asking it to write a story involving them)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What do you do if no model named GPT 5 will be released, but instead they continue with the oN scheme for all their models?
@yetforever Resolves n/a. Though a departed researcher already described working on GPT-5 so I would be surprised if that happened
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?
99% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2025?
64% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?
90% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?
89% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2025?
45% chance
Will GPT-5 have function-calling ability to some o1-like reasoning model, upon release?
49% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Mar 2025?
1% chance
Will I be impressed by GPT-5?
79% chance
Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi?
71% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2025?
16% chance