Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, the United States government (including federal agencies) takes functional control of Anthropic PBC or its successor entities. Functional control is defined as the government assuming direct management, operational control, or the power to override the board of directors and executive leadership regarding core business decisions, development, or deployment of AI models.

This includes, but is not limited to:

• An official government takeover, nationalization, or eminent domain acquisition of the company.

• A court-ordered receivership or government-mandated management replacement resulting in direct federal control.

This market resolves to NO if Anthropic remains a private entity, is acquired by a non-government entity, or if government oversight remains limited to regulatory compliance, investigations, or standard legal/contractual enforcement without seizing functional control.

Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, The New York Times, Bloomberg) and official government announcements.

Background

Anthropic is a prominent AI research and safety company known for its Claude line of large language models. The company has structured itself as a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) with a focus on AI safety and alignment. Given the rapid development of frontier AI models, there is ongoing debate among policymakers regarding the appropriate level of federal oversight, security requirements, and potential regulation of AI labs. While the U.S. government currently monitors the industry through frameworks like the Biden-Harris administration's Executive Order on AI and the establishment of the U.S. AI Safety Institute, it does not currently exercise operational control over AI companies.