Conditional on a Venezuela-Guyana conflict by 2024, which countries are going to militarily intervene by 2024 year end? | Manifold

Conditional on a Venezuela-Guyana conflict by 2024, which countries are going to militarily intervene by 2024 year end?

17

1.2kṀ1003

Jan 1

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

55%

United States

42%

Brazil

33%

France

I'll use the wording of Wikipedia and the mainstream media to adjudicate, but also how these countries portray themselves, and whether they have boots on the ground, some form of blockade, or no flying zone in the regions in conflict.

This market resolves on Dec 31st 2024 if there is a military conflict or not. This market resolves to N/A without conflict.

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Venezuela-Guyana Crisis

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Can't resolve to N/A

I'd expect the UK much more than France.

Can you add countries?

@JoshuaWilkes y

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Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?

Will the United States conduct additional military action against Venezuela before February 2026?

Will another country support Venezuela militarily?

Will another USA attack happens in Venezuelan soil in 2026?

Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2026?

Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any Guyanese territory before 2027?

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Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?

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