Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, when Chris Brown is sentenced for affray at Southwark Crown Court, currently scheduled for October 26, 2026, the court imposes an immediate custodial sentence requiring him to be taken into custody as a consequence of this conviction.

A fully suspended custodial sentence that does not require immediate imprisonment resolves NO.

A community order, fine, conditional or absolute discharge, or any other sentence that does not result in immediate custody also resolves NO.

If the sentencing hearing is postponed, the market remains unresolved until sentence is imposed, provided this occurs by December 31, 2026. If no sentence has been imposed by then, the market resolves N/A.

Primary resolution sources will be Southwark Crown Court / HM Courts & Tribunals Judiciary and the Crown Prosecution Service, with Reuters, AP or BBC used for confirmation where necessary.

The market intentionally closes several days before sentencing, preserving a genuine forecasting window while reducing the opportunity to trade on last-minute court filings, legal briefings, or information emerging immediately before the hearing.