Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029 (23:59:59 UTC), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is officially overturned, annulled, or invalidated by an authorized Brazilian constitutional authority—specifically Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE), the Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal - STF), or a formal decree of nullification by the National Congress—such that Lula is legally stripped of the presidency or prevented from taking office due to the cancellation or reversal of the 2026 election outcome.

This market resolves to NO if:

• Legal challenges requesting the annulment or overturning of the 2026 presidential election are rejected, dismissed, or fail to invalidate the result before January 1, 2029.

• Lula remains in office under the 2026 election mandate through December 31, 2028.

• Lula vacates office for ordinary, non-electoral reasons (e.g., standard impeachment for crimes committed in office, resignation, medical incapacitation, or death) without an official legal ruling invalidating or overturning the 2026 election result itself.

Background

Following the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff in Brazil, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announced that incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth presidential term with approximately 51.8% of the valid votes, edging out Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party - PL) by roughly 4.4 million votes.

Late on election night, Flávio Bolsonaro declared that he would not concede and directed his legal team to file petitions demanding the complete annulment of the runoff. The challenge centers primarily on an emergency order issued by Supreme Federal Court Justice Cristiano Zanin minutes after the scheduled 17:00 close of polls, which extended voting hours nationwide by two hours following reports of transport bottlenecks and bad weather. Opponents argue the last-minute extension altered electoral conditions without standard TSE clearance, setting up formal court petitions to dispute the certification of the results.