What happens when market creator left and question is never resolved?
24
120
แน1Kresolved May 11
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.8%
Answers N/A some time after trading ends (or equivalent 'bets are refunded')
0.0%
If the admins the rules it won't be retroactive
71%
Market is never resolved, funds are lost
22%
"Cancelled" acting like N/A which applied by admins if market creator disappeared
3%
Resolve to whatever the final probabilities are at market close
0.6%
People can eventually sell their stake to others, in case those others think it'll ever resolve.
0.5%
Resolve using some sort of consensus (e.g., a vote among users, or a decision by a user with "moderator" privileges)
2%
It goes to a randomly selected account that has a reputation of resolving markets correctly. They receive trading fees as a reward.
Selected answer will depend on which is correct, preferring earlier posted ones in case of duplicates.
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See https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president
If it answers itself as N/A after some time - is this time depending on how long it was open?
If admins will resolve it - then https://manifold.markets/about is worth updating
Disclaimer: I have made a significant bet that question asker is trolling, but I have not expected not resolving question at all, and now I worry that it is going to be resolved correctly by admins.
Close date updated to 2022-05-10 11:59 pm
Mar 8, 9:10pm: Pushed close date to future to give incentive to admins to take part in this market (I also emailed them)
Mar 9, 4:25pm: I will not extend further, in case of Trump hostage market will stay unresolved by 2022-05-10 I will resolve it as #3
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which are duplicates? In general if there are multiple subtly different (like N/A + new separate state mentioned here) then I would select both.
I would use MULTI and select both in way that would give more reward to closer one, but otherwise match their proportions to % to give honest returns.
If you do (b) then morally youd be capable of just an incorrect resolution favourable to yourself which is possible now.
(a) is a concern but it is also a concern on long term markets. Market an stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or in this case: longer than you can live without the gambling entertainment that tied up money is worth)
Say I bet on YES and then it becomes clear that YES was correct and the market probability gets bid up to 99%. Then the creator is AWOL and never actually resolves the market. If an automatic resolve-to-PROB happens then I mostly still get rewarded for my prescience.
I expect that the admins will eventually resolve current markets like this N/A. It seems against the spirit of user-controlled questions to pick an answer rather than return everyone's money.
Possible exception for if an established, reputable market maker dies unexpectedly. Might be safe enough to assume they'd want any clear cut markets resolved straightforwardly.
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