What happens when market creator left and question is never resolved?
Basic
24
Ṁ1040
resolved May 11
100%71%
Market is never resolved, funds are lost
0.0%Other
0.8%
Answers N/A some time after trading ends (or equivalent 'bets are refunded')
0.0%
If the admins the rules it won't be retroactive
22%
"Cancelled" acting like N/A which applied by admins if market creator disappeared
3%
Resolve to whatever the final probabilities are at market close
0.6%
People can eventually sell their stake to others, in case those others think it'll ever resolve.
0.5%
Resolve using some sort of consensus (e.g., a vote among users, or a decision by a user with "moderator" privileges)
2%
It goes to a randomly selected account that has a reputation of resolving markets correctly. They receive trading fees as a reward.
Selected answer will depend on which is correct, preferring earlier posted ones in case of duplicates. ---------- See https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president If it answers itself as N/A after some time - is this time depending on how long it was open? If admins will resolve it - then https://manifold.markets/about is worth updating Disclaimer: I have made a significant bet that question asker is trolling, but I have not expected not resolving question at all, and now I worry that it is going to be resolved correctly by admins. Close date updated to 2022-05-10 11:59 pm Mar 8, 9:10pm: Pushed close date to future to give incentive to admins to take part in this market (I also emailed them) Mar 9, 4:25pm: I will not extend further, in case of Trump hostage market will stay unresolved by 2022-05-10 I will resolve it as #3
#Manifold
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
14 Comments
24 Holders
60 Trades
Sort by:

So what actually happened here?

It seems to be the outcome, right? I have some income but I have no idea about source and see no way to check it, but it appears to bot be Trump scam.
Which would also not reward the ghost poster
I don't actually think this is likely, I just like it better as an option than 'Market is never resolved, funds are lost'
We wouldn't want the admins to have too much power. Also not sure if the trading fee distribution thing is possible rn
META: https://manifold.markets/Undox/market-resolution-is-yes-but-undox
The other answers are nice suggestions for what ought to happen, but what actually happens is this.
which are duplicates? In general if there are multiple subtly different (like N/A + new separate state mentioned here) then I would select both. I would use MULTI and select both in way that would give more reward to closer one, but otherwise match their proportions to % to give honest returns.
What are you planning to do about duplicate answers?
If you do (b) then morally youd be capable of just an incorrect resolution favourable to yourself which is possible now. (a) is a concern but it is also a concern on long term markets. Market an stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or in this case: longer than you can live without the gambling entertainment that tied up money is worth)
The problem here is (a) punishing people for betting correctly against predictions by other people (b) makes easier to cheat by putting large position and abandoning market in deliberate attempt to exploit this.
Say I bet on YES and then it becomes clear that YES was correct and the market probability gets bid up to 99%. Then the creator is AWOL and never actually resolves the market. If an automatic resolve-to-PROB happens then I mostly still get rewarded for my prescience.
if the admins *change* the rules, I meant, of course.
I expect that the admins will eventually resolve current markets like this N/A. It seems against the spirit of user-controlled questions to pick an answer rather than return everyone's money. Possible exception for if an established, reputable market maker dies unexpectedly. Might be safe enough to assume they'd want any clear cut markets resolved straightforwardly.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules