Will SpaceX announce a revised timeline for its first crewed Mars mission before August 25, 2025?
12
100Ṁ356Jun 28
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Elon Musk has previously stated ambitions for crewed Mars missions, with initial timelines suggesting launches as early as 2029. However, recent technical challenges may prompt revisions. This market resolves to 'Yes' if SpaceX publicly announces a new timeline for its first crewed Mars mission before August 25, 2025. Verification will be based on official SpaceX communications and reputable news outlets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
15% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land a crewed mission on Mars by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
25% chance
Will SpaceX manage to deliver the Starship on time in 2025 according to its agreement with NASA?
15% chance
Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026?
1% chance
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
43% chance
Will SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2040?
22% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?
67% chance