Elon Musk has previously stated ambitions for crewed Mars missions, with initial timelines suggesting launches as early as 2029. However, recent technical challenges may prompt revisions. This market resolves to 'Yes' if SpaceX publicly announces a new timeline for its first crewed Mars mission before August 25, 2025. Verification will be based on official SpaceX communications and reputable news outlets.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ28 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
@ElPlan
32min 40 sec
50-50 chance of making late 2026 window for uncrewed
36 min 50sec - 38 min
"and then launching 2 years later we would be sending humans."
...
Maybe we might do 2 landing episodes with Optimus and do the third one with people
So he is expressing some doubt about being able to make the 2028/29 window but the plan they are still aiming for still has 2028/29 window as the earliest date. To me that isn't "announcing a revised timeline".
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953028261044187204
"Slight chance of Starship flight to Mars crewed by Optimus in Nov/Dec next year. A lot needs to go right for that. More likely, first flight without humans in ~3.5 years, next flight ~5.5 years with humans. Mars city self-sustaining in 20 to 30 years."
6 Aug 2025
"Slight chance" is obviously down on a 50% chance for uncrewed in 2026, no surprise there as ship 36 exploded at Masseys between these two probability assessments. That is probability rather than timeline and is for uncrewed rather than crewed.
This question is for "timeline to first crewed mission" and the first possibility being 2028/9. It seems hard to tell from this whether there is still a less likely option involving uncrewed mission in 2026 and a crewed mission in 2028. Certainly crewed is more likely to have slipped to 2031 than still being 2028/9 and I would give a high probability that it will slip even further than that.
It is of course not my assessment of the probable date but whether SpaceX/Elon "announce a revised timeline" and strictly the answer might still be no? A less strict interpretation might say he has ~ more or less, admitted it. Not sure I know whether this should be considered enough to resolve the question.
@ChristopherRandles reading my crystal ball... looks like this qualifies as a timeline! its not a "we'll launch on dec 32nd at 11:11am" but it is a "this is our current plan and expectations about how that might progress"
resolving YES