Elon Musk has previously stated ambitions for crewed Mars missions, with initial timelines suggesting launches as early as 2029. However, recent technical challenges may prompt revisions. This market resolves to 'Yes' if SpaceX publicly announces a new timeline for its first crewed Mars mission before August 25, 2025. Verification will be based on official SpaceX communications and reputable news outlets.
1,000@ElPlan
32min 40 sec
50-50 chance of making late 2026 window for uncrewed
36 min 50sec - 38 min
"and then launching 2 years later we would be sending humans."
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Maybe we might do 2 landing episodes with Optimus and do the third one with people
So he is expressing some doubt about being able to make the 2028/29 window but the plan they are still aiming for still has 2028/29 window as the earliest date. To me that isn't "announcing a revised timeline".