By paramilitary, I mean an organised, formal group similar to the Irish Republican Army (IRA). This group would be public, make public threats and carry out attacks in the name of their ideology, publicly claiming responsibility for them and having a set of demands.
There is no requirement for the size of the group, but it must last long enough to be viewed as a genuine threat to security.
I feel it would be easy to be tricked by the "similar to the IRA" condition. I think the chance of something of that scale and level of organisation is like 5%. But related to the comment by the all memeing eye below, I think there's like a 50% chance something that meets the creator's definition already exists and I've just not heard of it because it's so tiny and insignificant.
Fair points, what I mean is a group similar in notoriety to the IRA. The group below I’ve personally never heard of and since I haven’t I would assume it’s not affecting the day to day security of ordinary people. The IRA was a genuine concern to most people at the time when going to public or busy places.
It wouldn’t need to be this, it could be attacks against government buildings or similar, but with the same level of infamy as a group like Islamic State, the IRA, Al qaeda. Imagine the EDL but larger and as a paramilitary group. I understand the criteria aren’t as specific as would be nice but that’s why I’m not betting on this market. My view is that if such a group came to be it would be obvious that they come under these criteria.
Would an existing group like Atomwaffen upgrading from death threats, propaganda, and thwarted attack plots to actually successful attacks count, or must it be newly created from scratch in the timeframe?
Also I'm assuming it wouldn't count if it was an unorganised movement of semi-lone-wolves that happen to be mostly radicalised in the same online space, rather than a centralised organisation, like with US school shooters and incel serial killers?
It doesn’t need to be newly created. Saying that would make the process of resolution needlessly pedantic.
Yes, as you said, it would need to be a semi-organised group, as in, attacks are directly credited to that group and demands are made, and there is a degree of belonging and unity within that group. Essentially, it must at least from the outside appear that it is a unified “front” as these types often call it.