🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ15
2		Ṁ12
3		Ṁ7
4		Ṁ3
5		Ṁ3

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In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause?

44% chance

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

38% chance

In 2025, what percentage of EAs are non-male?

32% chance

ML researchers’ median probability of existential risk from AI

The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll)

62% chance

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

36% chance

Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?

10% chance

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

75% chance

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

68% chance

In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

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I have confirmation from the team that runs the survey that they plan to release their analysis some time next year, because they need to incorporate some additional data. So I am updating the market close date to end of June.

@LudwigBald Reaching out to expedite this: 31.2% of respondents selected AI as top cause- so looks like the market was very close!

(For context, this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to the 14% you mentioned in the description though, which was what percentage of top cause responses were for AI (that stat will sum to 100%, the former stat usually exceeds 100% due to people rating multiple things equal-top).)