In the 2022 EA survey, what % of EAs select "AI Risk" as top cause?
22
166
450
resolved Jan 26
Resolved as
31%
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I have confirmation from the team that runs the survey that they plan to release their analysis some time next year, because they need to incorporate some additional data. So I am updating the market close date to end of June.

@LudwigBald Reaching out to expedite this: 31.2% of respondents selected AI as top cause- so looks like the market was very close!

(For context, this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to the 14% you mentioned in the description though, which was what percentage of top cause responses were for AI (that stat will sum to 100%, the former stat usually exceeds 100% due to people rating multiple things equal-top).)

@DavidMoss thanks for the update! I have closed the market. Do you think it's fair to resolve to 31% then?

I didn't know how exactly the question was asked when I made the market.

Comments from anyone welcome! :)

predicted NO

@LudwigBald Seems reasonable to me :) it was never mentioned that the methodology had to be the same as previous years to count