Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if I (the creator of this market) am banned or suspended from Manifold Markets at any point on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, specifically for reasons related to market manipulation, fixing markets, or other related violations of Manifold's Community Guidelines.

This market resolves to NO if:

• I am not banned or suspended by the deadline.

• I am banned or suspended solely for reasons completely unrelated to market manipulation or fixing markets (such as spam, harassment, doxxing, or copyright violations), with no official indication from administrators or moderators that market manipulation was a contributing factor.

The primary source of truth will be my public Manifold profile and any official statements, comments, or moderation actions documented by Manifold admins or moderators. If my account is banned and I am unable to resolve the market, a Manifold administrator or moderator should resolve this market using these criteria.

Background

Manifold's Community Guidelines strictly prohibit market manipulation. Forbidden activities include, but are not limited to:

• Using multiple accounts (alts) to manipulate market odds, distort prices, or harvest bonuses.

• Coordinating trades across multiple accounts or with other users to manipulate prices.

• Intentionally resolving markets incorrectly or exploiting technical loopholes to benefit the market creator.

Violations of these guidelines can result in disciplinary action from platform moderators, ranging from market N/A'ing to permanent account bans.