Resolution criteria
This market resolves to "Yes" if the user @realDonaldTrump is banned from Manifold Markets at any point before January 1, 2027. A ban is defined as the suspension or termination of the user's account, resulting in the inability to access or use Manifold's services. Verification of the ban will be based on a "banned" tag on @realDonaldTrump's profile.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ127 | |
| 2 | Ṁ88 | |
| 3 | Ṁ71 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
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I've banned @realDonaldTrump for three hours, as both a warning and in agreement with the discussion between @Eliza and @realDonaldTrump.
Why @realDonaldTrump should be banned:
Undeclared alts: The same user controls both @realDonaldTrump and @ManifoldChallenge, and very likely other accounts. Neither account follows the guidelines rules for alt account identification. Proof: see the interaction in the thread below where the RealDonald account replies to a thread from the ManifoldChallenge account as if they are the market manager.
Impersonating Manifold with @ManifoldChallenge is against the guidelines.
Impersonating Donald Trump is against the guidelines.
A casual glance at details of trading patterns, market creation, and managrams sent from both of these two accounts reveals a set of numerous other accounts impersonating several political figures. I could ask SirSalty to verify how many of these are likely controlled by the same user or an accomplice.
A collection of several questionable accounts have just been created and sent all their mana to @realDonaldTrump (directly or via other parties). The clearest example is @OOPS. Bonus farming in this way is also against the guidelines.
There exist multiple markets created by this entire group of users, which seem to have been purely created as profit transfer or some other form of platform manipulation. This is against the guidelines. It's also possible some of these markets are unlisted.
By this point we have accumulated so many guidelines breaches that I gave up and just bought Yes shares. I'm sure someone more interested could see if the group of suspicious accounts have manipulated other markets, etc.
Given that there are so many breaches and not just one, I think a ban for a moderate period of time would be totally appropriate, along with closing all the impersonation accounts and a fine equivalent to the bonus farming haul.
@Eliza @mods I regret doing these actions and I believe @Bayesian can back me up that I am working on undoing these. They recommended I indicated my alts, which I was about to log on and do, and I am N/Aing markets that were purely for manipulation. In addition, I am sending back starting mana to my alts. I forgot about @OOPS, which I will do now. I am about to start the Manifold Challenge, which I would appreciate the opportunity to run. Please give me a couple more days to undo all my scandalous, wrong acts and only ban me if I have any further offenses.
In addition:
I have created numerous top 10 markets that are popular and well engineered, such as "Can Manifold persuade AI?" and "Does AI love Trump?"
I am creating the Manifold Challenge, that does not impersonate Manifold, and it is sponsored by notable Manifold users such as @Bayesian, @strutheo, and @jim
I am undoing any bad things I have done.
@realDonaldTrump how about we all agree that "coming clean" shows rehabilitation is in progress and a short 3 hour ban would be an appropriate punishment instead of a permanent ban 🙃