In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
1k
2043
60%
chance

As per the Twitter debate between Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) and Daniel Colson (@DanielColson6), this question - which was suggested by Daniel - looks to measure the impact of AI on jobs in the US.

The data used to close the question to yes or no will be FRED's Employment Population Ratio 25-54 yrs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I believe that there is a higher chance that the employment ratio will remain under 70% rather than higher, the reason being, that currently the projections are for the percentage to be under 67.2%, (Employment–population Ratio at 60.2 Percent in February 2023 : The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023). Furthermore if we look at the data from FRED's Employment

we can see that there is a decrease starting to happen, and the percentage has been stagnant over the past few months.

However there might be complications as according to the Bureau of Labor statistics, the labor participation rate for prime aged Americans, is around 83.4% which is a decrease from the year prior. If this gap continue then it could result in a higher percentage relative to the ratio.