When will US utility-scale renewal electricity generation exceed US coal electricity generation?
6
82
resolved Oct 22
ResolvedN/A
11%
2023
22%
2024
26%
2025
16%
2026
10%
2027
5%
2028
5%
2029
5%
Not before 2030

Currently, https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 lists coal as 21.9% (898 TWh) of the utility-scale electricity generation in the US (2021) with renewables at 19.8% (815 TWh).

The same numbers and their history over the years can be seen in detail at https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_03_01_a.html (sum the three relevant columns for renewables — note that these exclude small-scale production. Utility-scale only!)

I intend to use the above sources as resolution criteria if possible. If they no longer provide the data in a useful format, I'll try to find another official source. If the above sources decide to redefine what counts as "renewable" (or "coal"), I'll go with their updated definition. If the popular meaning changes, but the EIA continues using the current definitions, I will keep with the EIA.

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bought Ṁ5 of 2023

@LucaMasters looks like this should resolve to... 2022? Which doesn't exist. Possibly 2023 as the earlier available option, but resolve N/A seems like the correct (if unfortunate) answer.

@EvanDaniel Huh, yeah. Looks like they updated with February numbers not long after I posted this—it had been Nov. numbers and I hadn't accounted for the fact that Nov 2022 numbers are too early to settle 2022 as not it.

N/A it is.

@LucaMasters Alas, this seems like it was a really interesting market concept!

bought Ṁ5 of 2027

Capitalism is collapsing from peak oil. By 2026 half the oil will be gone.

Currently US coal is around 1pwh while hydro is .25 and wind is .7. Coal is falling .1 a year. This would put the cross in 2026.

Wind is being decommissioned and could begin falling this year, it's a negligible factor as it will collapse the same rate as coal. Xcel energy decommissioned 5% of its turbines in 2020 and that's what they report.