By which year will renewable sources first supply 50% of US electricity?
10
1kṀ3572060
14%
Before 2030
23%
2030-2034
26%
2035-2039
22%
2040-2049
7%
2050-2054
5%
2055-2059
5%
2060 or later
This will resolve based on data from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy (or the best equivalent source if not available), as currently reported here. The most recent available figure is 22.52% in 2022.
Clarification for pedants: this will resolve based only on present/future data. Presenting evidence that, actually, most electricity was supplied by hydropower in 1882 will not cause a "before 2030" resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
FWIW EIA projects only 44% renewable by 2050 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51698. This seems pessimistic to me and discounts the possibility of a much faster solar+battery takeoff.
Related questions
Related questions
Will over 25% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
57% chance
Will renewable energy sources account for more than 50% of global electricity production by 2030?
68% chance
Will over 20% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
58% chance
Will over 15% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
85% chance
By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.
14% chance
Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040?
74% chance
When will renewable energy overtake fossil fuels as the primary source of energy generation?
Will the U.S. get 5% of its energy from solar before 2025?
1% chance
Will a majority of US electricity production come from non-fossil fuel sources before the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will renewable energy sources surpass fossil fuels as the primary source of energy worldwide by the end of 2050?
86% chance