https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1643994000473608198 ; https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1643995062760624128 ; https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1643996120207749122
RSV (respiratory syncitial virus) is a highly-transmissible virus afflicting humans, causing cold-class signs/symptoms including damage to the lungs and airways, and potentially causing downstream postdromal problems, as viruses do, and killing 6k-10k (mostly older and extremely younger) people per year.
Despite attempts to develop a vaccine for RSV over the last six decades, no effective safe such vaccine currently exists for public use. Pfizer and GSK both have candidate vaccines under FDA review, which are intended for those 60+ years old as well as small children.
The market resolves early and to YES if either or both of the candidate RSV vaccines mentioned above win FDA approval for public administration to both children and elderly (60+) people before 2023-9-1, and NO if neither one does before that time.
Resolution will hinge primarily on announcements by the FDA, the CDC, Pfizer, GSK, or major at-least-remotely-trustworthy news outlets including the NYT, Vox, Reuters, AP, WSJ, and CNN.
Please note that any of an mRNA-based, protein-based, or attenuated-virus-based vaccine will be vaccine enough to resolve this market YES.
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Amazing news! This has happened last month (and the market should resolve to YES).
(Sadly not for children yet. See below.)
@habakuk It says in the description that it has to be approved for both children and elderly people, while this press release says it has been approved only for the elderly.