Russia has been saber-rattling an increasing amount and we know Putin is emboldened by US hesitancy to send further aid to Ukraine. He committed acts of aggression without consequences in Syria, Georgia, Chechnya. Will international inaction spur him on to finally try and test the NATO alliance by attacking a NATO country this year?

• Update 2025-06-01 (PST): - Clarification on Resolution Criteria:

  • The 2024 incident involved an undersea cable and does not constitute an attack on a NATO country.

  • The potential invocation of Article 4 is a factor but does not equate to a direct attack. (AI summary of creator comment)