Russia has been saber-rattling an increasing amount and we know Putin is emboldened by US hesitancy to send further aid to Ukraine. He committed acts of aggression without consequences in Syria, Georgia, Chechnya. Will international inaction spur him on to finally try and test the NATO alliance by attacking a NATO country this year?
Update 2025-06-01 (PST): - Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
The 2024 incident involved an undersea cable and does not constitute an attack on a NATO country.
The potential invocation of Article 4 is a factor but does not equate to a direct attack. (AI summary of creator comment)
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@ChristopherRandles I've been delaying because we're in kinda grey territory afaik?
https://www.euronews.com/2024/12/29/swedens-opposition-wants-nato-article-invoked-after-cable-break
So the incident happened in 2024 but the article hasn't been invoked yet. Also, it was an undersea cable, so not really a country. I'm obviously leaning towards resolving no, but the chance that Article 4 could be invoked is making me hesitate.
Last year, Russian cruise missiles overflew Romania en route to Ukraine. If this year a cruise missile or drone impacted Romania, would that resolve this market YES? Would it matter whether the impact was unintentional (eg due to a mechanical failure or interception), or would the original decision to have the route go through NATO territory be sufficient to establish that Russia meant it as an attack?
@Lorelai Then you should at least clarify that in the market description.
Also, this change means this market isn't about whether Russia attacks a NATO country but about whether NATO will invoke Article 4 or 5 due to an attack by Russia. In my opinion these two things have different probabilities and thus the market title is misleading.
@CertaintyOfVictory the word attack connotes intention. spillover isn't an intentional attack on a NATO country. This market will continue to be about whether or not Russia attacks. I will however clarify that this means physical assault as opposed to e.g. cyberattacks.