How long will Andrey Belousov last as Russia's Minister of 'Defense' (War)
6
150Ṁ12152026
1%
Less than two weeks
1%
2 weeks-1 month
1.7%
2-6 months
11%
6 months-a year
64%
1-2 years
34%
2+ years
Russian leader and warmonger Vladimir Putin, whose military has been criticized at home for a slow progress and heavy losses during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is replacing longtime ally Sergei Shoigu as defense minister. Andrei Belousov will take over – how long will he last?
Question to be extended until his ousting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Vladimir Solovyov be the leader of Russia before 2031?
11% chance
Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?
87% chance
Will Oleksandr Syrsky still be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
53% chance
Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?
Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?
96% chance
Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have served in the military?
67% chance
Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?
6% chance
Will the Russo-Ukrainian war end within a month if Putin dies
47% chance
Will Dmirty Medvedev outlive Vladimir Putin?
70% chance