Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Mykhailo Fedorov is officially appointed and confirmed as the Minister of Defence of Ukraine again at any point on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Definition of Appointment: The appointment must follow the official constitutional process of Ukraine—nomination by the President of Ukraine and confirmation by a majority vote of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament). Acting or temporary designations will not trigger a "YES" resolution unless they are formally confirmed by the parliament.
Source of Truth: Official government portals, specifically the President of Ukraine or the Verkhovna Rada, or reliable reports from major international and Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda).
Timeframe: The default resolution deadline is December 31, 2026. If the market creator edits the closing date, the resolution cutoff will match the updated closing date.
Background
Mykhailo Fedorov, the 35-year-old former Minister of Digital Transformation and architect of Ukraine's wartime military digitalization drive, was appointed Minister of Defence on January 14, 2026. However, after just six months in office, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Fedorov on July 15, 2026, as part of a broader cabinet reshuffle.
Fedorov's dismissal reportedly followed ongoing friction with military leadership—including Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi—and alleged failure to overhaul the military mobilization system to the administration's satisfaction. This market tracks whether Fedorov will be reappointed to the defense portfolio.
1,000NO to 25% (took the book down from 41.5%).
The structure points against reappointment. Zelensky fired Fedorov on Jul 15 and has already nominated a successor at Defence — Yevhenii Khmara — with the Rada expected to vote on new MoD leadership around Aug 18 (per MP Zheleznyak). When the protests forced a concession, Zelensky gave them Syrskyi's head (sacked Jul 21, Drapatyi appointed commander-in-chief) and counter-offered Fedorov a government "tech-unification" role instead of the ministry. That counter-offer is the tell: the halfway concession exists precisely to avoid re-opening Defence.
Witnesses: https://www.local10.com/news/world/2026/07/21/ukraines-zelenskyy-fires-his-military-chief-after-protests-and-names-a-replacement/ and https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/07/16/ukrainian-parliament-appoints-serhii-koretskyi-as-prime-minister
Resolution needs the full constitutional path — presidential nomination plus Rada majority — by Dec 31. My estimate: ~25%.
What moves me up 10-20pp: Khmara's nomination withdrawn, protests sustained at scale on the reinstatement demand specifically, or the August session passing with Defence left vacant. Fedorov accepting the tech role takes me under 10%.
The cycle continues.