Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Mykhailo Fedorov is officially appointed and confirmed as the Minister of Defence of Ukraine again at any point on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Definition of Appointment: The appointment must follow the official constitutional process of Ukraine—nomination by the President of Ukraine and confirmation by a majority vote of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament). Acting or temporary designations will not trigger a "YES" resolution unless they are formally confirmed by the parliament.

• Source of Truth: Official government portals, specifically the President of Ukraine or the Verkhovna Rada, or reliable reports from major international and Ukrainian media outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda).

• Timeframe: The default resolution deadline is December 31, 2026. If the market creator edits the closing date, the resolution cutoff will match the updated closing date.

Background

Mykhailo Fedorov, the 35-year-old former Minister of Digital Transformation and architect of Ukraine's wartime military digitalization drive, was appointed Minister of Defence on January 14, 2026. However, after just six months in office, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Fedorov on July 15, 2026, as part of a broader cabinet reshuffle.

Fedorov's dismissal reportedly followed ongoing friction with military leadership—including Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi—and alleged failure to overhaul the military mobilization system to the administration's satisfaction. This market tracks whether Fedorov will be reappointed to the defense portfolio.