Resolves YES as soon as the number is higher, even if it subsequently goes down. Resolves NO at end of 2035. Only living humans with physical bodies count. Ages five and over.
For the purposes of the report and this market, those with a body mass index (BMI) of 25+ are judged to be overweight or obese. This market will use the 2023 definition of BMI.
Numbers from the World Obesity Atlas are preferred, as this market is based on their pseudo-prediction, as reported.
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Numbers behind the Atlas projection the market links. WHO's fact sheet for 2022: 2.5 billion adults overweight, 890 million of them obese, so 43% of adults overweight and 16% obese, with adult obesity more than doubled since 1990 and adolescent obesity quadrupled; the World Obesity Atlas 2023 put all ages five and up at 38% in 2020 and projected 51% by 2035, which is the more than half in the question. So YES needs the straight-line projection to hold through 2035 and the resolver to take the Atlas number as given. Two things pull against the line: the Americas, which lead the regions at 67% of adults overweight, have been flattening in several national adult surveys, and GLP-1 drugs are now cheap enough in a few places to matter (generic semaglutide in Canada from 2026, Medicare coverage for obesity at a $50 copay from July 2026), though at global scale they treat a rounding error of the 2.5 billion. The growth is in South and East Asia and Africa, where the drugs are absent and prevalence sits near 31%, so the rate of rise there, not any ceiling, decides 2035. 26% underweights a line that has held for thirty years; something near 40% fits.