Similar to this question about testosterone, this market asks whether or not glyphosate will be determined to be one of the primary causes of the obesity epidemic in the US. By "primary cause", I mean that one or more peer-reviewed papers in a well-renowned scientific journal (Nature, Science, Cell, Journal of Pediatrics, etc.) posits that the increase in the last ~30 years is at least 10% attributable to glyphosate ingestion.
I heard a theory of metabolic disease being related to glyphosate in a podcast. I then Googled it, and discovered that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the chairman of Children's Health Defense, which published an article on 2/18/2020, Weighing Down Childhood, alleging that glyphosate may be contributing to the increase in childhood obesity.
I'm still extremely skeptical of this and believe it's likely a conspiracy theory, but want to get the market's perspective on this question. I'm not going to trade in this market.
From the article:
One of the key mechanisms whereby glyphosate may carve out a “path to obesity,” say Seneff and Samsel, is through glyphosate’s impairment of tryptophan synthesis. Tryptophan is an essential amino acid that, when depleted, leads to inadequate serotonin and melatonin in the brain. Ordinarily, serotonin regulates appetite, so “it follows that serotonin deficiency would lead to overeating and obesity.”
Seneff and Samsel state:The obesity epidemic began in the United States in 1975, simultaneous with the introduction of glyphosate into the food chain, and it has steadily escalated in step with increased usage of glyphosate in agriculture. While it is common knowledge that Americans are continuing to grow more and more obese with each passing year, there may be less awareness that obesity aligns with glyphosate usage elsewhere in the world. For example, South Africa arguably has the highest obesity rates in all of Africa, and it is also the African country that has most heavily embraced glyphosate usage since the 1970’s and has freely adopted genetically modified crops with little regulation.
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@BrunoParga correct. It must be shown that if a child ingests glyphosate, there is some direct effect that makes that child more likely to become obese.
@MichaelSchmatz where on the evidence-based medicine pyramid must the article be that makes this claim?
@BrunoParga I would accept anything at the "Observational Studies with Comparison groups" level or higher. Do you think this level is plausible to achieve?
@MichaelSchmatz I am not knowledgeable enough about the subject to say if that's strong enough. On the other hand, controlled trials would be unethical (and very difficult) to perform. I think systematic reviews can be done on any of the levels below, so if we had those that would be sufficient. I'm not sure it is necessary, though.
Sorry, I'm not sure if this helps hahaha
Maybe we could apply the same standards that were used to conclude that tobacco causes cancer, whatever those are? (We probably wouldn't get enough data by 2030, though).