This is a question related to fast(hard) or slow(soft) AGI takeoff as well as the chance of economic disasters causing unemployment above 20%. The question will be resolved based on the U-3 unemployment rate. In the case of fast or semi-fast AI takeoff I would assume that this would cause unemployment to shoot up rapidly reaching 80% within 2 years. Note that if there is some economic disaster (similar to COVID) which leads to a U-3 rate above 20% before AI take-off (and the U-3 rate does not grow to 80% within 2 years) this question will resolve NO, so take that into account in your predictions.

The question resolves YES if the U-3 unemployment rate reaches 80% within 2 years of it reaching 20% for the FIRST time. If the U-3 rate reaches 20% and does not cross 80% within 2 years the question will resolve NO. In the case that 20% is not reached I will continue to move the resolve date.