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I thought that the results would appear only after the closing ceremony, but they are already up (https://www.imo-official.org/year_info.aspx?year=2023). Hence I've resolved the market.

Now that it's over, was @PC being overconfident or did he have a reason to buy that much?

@jacksonpolack I was obviously betting on the brilliance of our next generation :) Feels like a decent way to lose money

haha - happy to share, but maybe it would be more fun in some market form :P

@PC

@PC Connected with @jacksonpolack , and wanted to share with everyone that I was making informed bets.

When I bid up to 97% on Sunday night (which is after the test was done but before any tests were marked), I was 99.5%+ sure that there was at least one perfect score. So, there was a chance that I was wrong, but I was pretty confident at that point. Apologies if people bet and lost money because they thought I was just gambling

i'm currently in japan, do with that information what you will (many of my manifold followers can confirm this to be true)

@Devansh LOL and yet you have put less than 1k in, where is your conviction?

my sense is PC has inside information / strong non-inside information so i'm not betting no. we'll see

@jacksonpolack LOL if I had inside information I would be making money in other IMO markets

Interesting

Why the vast overconfidence here? Out of the previous 20 IMO's, there have been 3 where nobody got a perfect score. That should put the base rate for this question at 85%

@sbares Well, I suppose if someone here participated and is quite confident in their performance...

@sbares so little faith in our high schoolers and their increasing intelligence :P