Will the risk of death during Artemis II reach 20%?

Ṁ1kṀ5.4k

Dec 31

chance

ALL

There are several markets asking whether any of the astronauts on NASA’s Artemis II mission will not survive it, but they currently seem a bit higher (1-in-20) than one might expect.

To maybe squeeze more precision out of them, this market will resolve YES if, during or immediately after mission, an average of the largest such markets reaches a 20% chance of a death (either directly or implied). This must happen due to real mission events, not because of market manipulation (in my estimation). I will not bet on this market or any market that may count toward resolution.

Feel free to post relevant markets in the comments.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Artemis 2 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

98% chance

[ACX 2026] Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?

96% chance

Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission? (duplicate)

3% chance

Will the Artemis 2 astronauts return on schedule?

96% chance

Will Artemis II crew successfully complete lunar flyby and return to Earth?

97% chance

Will Artemis 3 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

96% chance

Will Artemis 5 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

95% chance

Will Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

95% chance

Will Artemis 6 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

95% chance

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

38% chance

Sort by:

There appears to have been a momentary spike soon after launch in one of the two markets I’m watching for this.

https://manifold.markets/jks/will-artemis-2-return-to-earth-with?r=TG9nYW5UdXJuZXI

It did not cause the average to exceed 20%, but even if it had, it resembles market manipulation and would not count.

This resolves YES if death occurs, right?

The tricky thing about this market is that most people would probably agree that the biggest risk of death comes from the heat shield, which is not something that we would ever expect to encounter some kind of event until it's literally already going through re-entry.

If the risk of death is ever widely viewed at more than 20%, I would expect that not to occur until after the mission has ended.

@SimonWestlake Good point. I always meant “during the mission” to mean “not before the mission”, primarily to avoid market manipulation. A delayed market response to a failed re-entry will resolve Yes, because if nothing else I’ll leave the duplicate market open until things have settled.

@SimonWestlake re-worded to “during or immediately after”.

@LoganTurner How would that work if the heat shield has major issues (indicating a relatively high risk of death) but they survive? We wouldn't know how bad things got until we already knew they were not going to die.

@SimonWestlake Gonna squint at the graphs to look for peaks in the source markets around/after re-entry. If the peaks retrospectively seem based in real risk, they’ll count