Will Artemis 2 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

Question

This market closes when Artemis 2 returns to Earth (resolves YES), a member of its crew dies during the mission (resolves NO), or the mission is scrapped before T–0 (resolves N/A), whichever occurs first.

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Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Artemis 2 launches with no humans on board (uncrewed), this market will resolve N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (32 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).