Is the universe fully deterministic?
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Will resolve to MKT at close

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Maybe

qm

@Puggy mwi

@adele but that's the multiverse not the universe. Emergent indeterminism from self-locating uncertainty.

Possible arbitrage opportunity?

(Oh wait, it was reposted below so never mind.)

This will basically resolve randomly according to the whims of some whale in 2030

@TomShlomi Would anyone here object to changing the resolution criteria to either include a clause against blatant manipulation or use a poll instead? Or we could create a new market like that.

predicts NO

@jack I'd pretty strongly prefer making a new market; that would be a pretty big change to this market.

Here, I made a new one that resolves to physicist opinion after we've discovered all the mysteries of the universe that it's possible to discover.

I don't think I can predict who the biggest whale will be in 2030 and which way they'll bet.

predicts NO

@Yev Of course not, it's not deterministic!

A narrow definition of universe is no because of quantum. A wide definition is no because of some part of the multiverse running on non-deterministic math.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall I second your first point, but why posit a non-deterministic multiverse?

predicts NO

@BionicD0LPH1N If it has all possible math in it then some of that math is going to be non-deterministic, no?

Depends on what exactly you mean by "deterministic" and "the universe". The state of the universe is a wave function which evolves deterministically according the Schrodinger equation. However, there is quantum randomness (non-determinism) in observations of physical systems. However, I view the universe (which of course includes us and our observations) as simply evolving deterministically (i.e. many-worlds interpretation).

@jack Same thing here. Our universe is deterministic, even if subjectively we perceive true quantum randomness. I bet yes as a vote and because I think in long term Everett theory will gain the full acceptance it deserves.