380
4.7K
43K
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions that Haley should drop out
Resolved
YES
Haley wins (most votes, not delegates) in at least one state
Resolved
NO
Biden is recorded tripping over
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions his sneaker sale
Resolved
NO
Haley drops out of the race
Resolved
YES
Trump posts at least 10 different posts on Truth Social including photos of himself (photos within a graphic, link etc. count)
Resolved
NO
Biden compliments Haley
Resolved
NO
Trump is recorded farting
Resolved
NO
Biden mentions Taylor Swift
Resolved
NO
Manifold has an outage lasting longer than 5 minutes (as reported by users)
Resolved
NO
Biden receives in every state more than 90% of the votes
Resolved
NO
@mattyb wears his Marianne campaign shirt on ST and posts a photo
Resolved
YES
At least one state will have fewer than 85% of votes counted before March 6th, 20:00 PST
Resolved
YES
Trump comments on Biden's age or physical abilities
Resolved
NO
At least one major candidate (Biden, Trump, Haley) experiences issues with their microphone during their speech
Resolved
NO
Trump or/and Biden post an AI-generated image on their social media accounts (with a note that it is AI-generated)
Resolved
NO
538 shows Haley at above 16.00% at any point in time in the national Republican primary polls ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ )
Resolved
YES
Marianne Williamson receives at least 5% of votes in one state
Resolved
NO
Trump, Biden or Haley eat a local delicacy on stage
Resolved
NO
Trump provides a serious hint about who his VP nominee will be
  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason.

  • All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve within 48 hours. Otherwise, I will resolve them after 48 hours as if they have not happened.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed. If you have questions regarding submissions, please tag the creator in the comment section.

  • Primary/Caucus results will be resolved according to the rules in my other markets.

  • Any mentions, says, comments etc. submissions will be resolved based on my own judgment if not mentioned otherwise in the submission. I will be fairly relaxed with words and phrasings. All of those statements can be made in a speech, interview, on social media, etc.

  • Any submissions that contain insults or strong political opinions toward politicians will be deleted by me at my own discretion. Submissions about these are allowed (e.g., 'Trump insults Haley as b****' is okay; 'Trump is a b***** on stage' would be deleted).

  • Everything that happens between March 5th 00:00 EST to March 6th 06:00 PST will be considered as Super Tuesday.

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I've done all repayments and reimbursements, if you haven't received yours or have any questions, please let me know

This market will close on March 8th at 22:59 UTC / 17:59 EST / 12:59 PST. I won't extend it, so it won't appear in popular markets anymore and I don't want to ping everyone for this. I'll wait until all results are in before resolving the last markets. (Hello, California!) If you need your Mana or would like to make adjustments, please do so beforehand.

@traders Thank you, everyone for your participation, submitting answers and providing high-quality proof that has contributed to the success of this market. ❤

I plan to address everything except the election results and the Manifold Tournament tomorrow at approximately 13:00 UTC/8:00 (am) EST/5:00 (am) PST/13:09:21 old Paris time, adhering to the rules. Once resolved, the decision will be final and will not be reconsidered, even if proof is submitted afterward. Please ensure that you have all necessary proof posted. Whether a "Former candidate is interviewed by CNN, MSNBC, or Fox" currently stands at 72% is irrelevant. The resolution will be 'No' if no proof is presented. Keep in mind that the evidence must be shown during the market-defined time.

Regarding any repayments related to my misresolution(s) (Massachusetts county, immigration), these issues will be addressed subsequently, both in the comments section and in the days following. There might be a need for an extra day to handle these matters. I apologize for any inconvenience caused by these.

Presidential elections prop bets is live

At least six California House of Representatives primaries will result in a Democrat vs. Democrat or Republican vs. Republican faceoff in the general election

@SaviorofPlant Can I resolve your last 2 ones? [I amn't into Californian politics]

@Lion Both resolve NO

@SaviorofPlant Thank you ❤

Ron DeSantis gets over 200,000 votes

@MarkHamill Have you done the math? Can I resolve this one NO?

@Lion Yeah he isn’t coming close

@MarkHamill Thanks ❤

An elected official who previously endorsed another candidate switches their endorsement to Trump

Ahh, too bad this didn’t make the time limit

Exactly two of {Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont} have the same third place candidate on the republican side

Oklahoma and Texas: 3. place Ron DeSantis (uncomitted is ignored), Vermont: 3. place Chris Christie

This market will close on March 8th at 22:59 UTC / 17:59 EST / 12:59 PST. I won't extend it, so it won't appear in popular markets anymore and I don't want to ping everyone for this. I'll wait until all results are in before resolving the last markets. (Hello, California!) If you need your Mana or would like to make adjustments, please do so beforehand.

At least six California House of Representatives primaries will result in a Democrat vs. Democrat or Republican vs. Republican faceoff in the general election

There are four races (CA-12, CA-16, CA-20, CA-34) which seem very likely to go this way. There's another which is very close (CA-37); there is an independent candidate in second place with 10% of the vote, but there's a Democrat at 9.7% and they could easily advance to the general to face off against the Democrat in first.

That's only five, and the only other race that could have this outcome is CA-31, which currently has these results:

Gil Cisneros

Democrat13,627+21.40%21.40%

Daniel Martinez

Republican13,181+20.70%20.70

Pedro Casas

Republican12,061+18.94%18.94

At 54% votes counted, this seems pretty unlikely to flip, but I'm not sure how California counts votes - if the pending votes are mostly election day votes, which lean Republican, both Rs could gain and end up advancing to the general.

If you are dead-set on resolving everything tomorrow, this should probably resolve N/A unless most of the count is wrapped up by then. You can probably safely resolve NO if CA-37 finishes counting or CA-31 is somewhere around 80-90% votes counted and Cisneros still has a healthy margin.

@SaviorofPlant ca31 is very safe

@SemioticRivalry It's a D+9 district, so we'd naively expect 54.5% Dem / 45.5% R, and Rs only combine for 40% of the vote right now. Seems very plausible that much of the outstanding vote is Election Day and each R could gain a couple percent, although it's far from given that Casas would pass Cisneros even in that scenario

@SaviorofPlant Its a Biden+31 district

@SaviorofPlant "expect results" I amn't resolving those with 52% counted.

Trump, Biden or Haley eat a local delicacy on stage

Biden eating a hot dog on stage in North Carolina yesterday afternoon!

@Predictor very realistic I can't believe everyone missed that until now

@shankypanky No hats or golden sneakers though. 🙁

@Predictor try a better prompt - I mean, search term

bought Ṁ71 At least one major c... NO

Here he was in Texas in the late afternoon at a rally just absolutely chowing down.

Then that night he was caught chomping down on an American Samoan specialty dish, no idea how he lost that one.

Finally, enjoying an ice cream this morning at a victory rally in Alabama.

Someone wearing a hat is on seen on stage during a victory/concession speech.
bought Ṁ500 Someone wearing a ha... YES
At least one state will have fewer than 85% of votes counted before March 6th, 20:00 PST

@Lion Resolves YES. The NYT estimates that only 52% of the votes have been counted in California:

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