I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason.
All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve within 48 hours. Otherwise, I will resolve them after 48 hours as if they have not happened.
Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed. If you have questions regarding submissions, please tag the creator in the comment section.
Primary/Caucus results will be resolved according to the rules in my other markets.
Any mentions, says, comments etc. submissions will be resolved based on my own judgment if not mentioned otherwise in the submission. I will be fairly relaxed with words and phrasings. All of those statements can be made in a speech, interview, on social media, etc.
Any submissions that contain insults or strong political opinions toward politicians will be deleted by me at my own discretion. Submissions about these are allowed (e.g., 'Trump insults Haley as b****' is okay; 'Trump is a b***** on stage' would be deleted).
Everything that happens between March 5th 00:00 EST to March 6th 06:00 PST will be considered as Super Tuesday.
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I've done all repayments and reimbursements, if you haven't received yours or have any questions, please let me know
This market will close on March 8th at 22:59 UTC / 17:59 EST / 12:59 PST. I won't extend it, so it won't appear in popular markets anymore and I don't want to ping everyone for this. I'll wait until all results are in before resolving the last markets. (Hello, California!) If you need your Mana or would like to make adjustments, please do so beforehand.
@traders Thank you, everyone for your participation, submitting answers and providing high-quality proof that has contributed to the success of this market. ❤
I plan to address everything except the election results and the Manifold Tournament tomorrow at approximately 13:00 UTC/8:00 (am) EST/5:00 (am) PST/13:09:21 old Paris time, adhering to the rules. Once resolved, the decision will be final and will not be reconsidered, even if proof is submitted afterward. Please ensure that you have all necessary proof posted. Whether a "Former candidate is interviewed by CNN, MSNBC, or Fox" currently stands at 72% is irrelevant. The resolution will be 'No' if no proof is presented. Keep in mind that the evidence must be shown during the market-defined time.
Regarding any repayments related to my misresolution(s) (Massachusetts county, immigration), these issues will be addressed subsequently, both in the comments section and in the days following. There might be a need for an extra day to handle these matters. I apologize for any inconvenience caused by these.
Presidential elections prop bets is live
This market will close on March 8th at 22:59 UTC / 17:59 EST / 12:59 PST. I won't extend it, so it won't appear in popular markets anymore and I don't want to ping everyone for this. I'll wait until all results are in before resolving the last markets. (Hello, California!) If you need your Mana or would like to make adjustments, please do so beforehand.
There are four races (CA-12, CA-16, CA-20, CA-34) which seem very likely to go this way. There's another which is very close (CA-37); there is an independent candidate in second place with 10% of the vote, but there's a Democrat at 9.7% and they could easily advance to the general to face off against the Democrat in first.
That's only five, and the only other race that could have this outcome is CA-31, which currently has these results:
Gil Cisneros
Democrat13,627+21.40%21.40%
Daniel Martinez
Republican13,181+20.70%20.70
Pedro Casas
Republican12,061+18.94%18.94
At 54% votes counted, this seems pretty unlikely to flip, but I'm not sure how California counts votes - if the pending votes are mostly election day votes, which lean Republican, both Rs could gain and end up advancing to the general.
If you are dead-set on resolving everything tomorrow, this should probably resolve N/A unless most of the count is wrapped up by then. You can probably safely resolve NO if CA-37 finishes counting or CA-31 is somewhere around 80-90% votes counted and Cisneros still has a healthy margin.
@SemioticRivalry It's a D+9 district, so we'd naively expect 54.5% Dem / 45.5% R, and Rs only combine for 40% of the vote right now. Seems very plausible that much of the outstanding vote is Election Day and each R could gain a couple percent, although it's far from given that Casas would pass Cisneros even in that scenario
