Super Tuesday prop bets [March 5th]
380
43kṀ310k
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions that Haley should drop out
Resolved
YES
Haley wins (most votes, not delegates) in at least one state
Resolved
NO
Biden is recorded tripping over
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions his sneaker sale
Resolved
NO
Haley drops out of the race
Resolved
YES
Trump posts at least 10 different posts on Truth Social including photos of himself (photos within a graphic, link etc. count)
Resolved
NO
Biden compliments Haley
Resolved
NO
Trump is recorded farting
Resolved
NO
Biden mentions Taylor Swift
Resolved
NO
Manifold has an outage lasting longer than 5 minutes (as reported by users)
Resolved
NO
Biden receives in every state more than 90% of the votes
Resolved
NO
@mattyb wears his Marianne campaign shirt on ST and posts a photo
Resolved
YES
At least one state will have fewer than 85% of votes counted before March 6th, 20:00 PST
Resolved
YES
Trump comments on Biden's age or physical abilities
Resolved
NO
At least one major candidate (Biden, Trump, Haley) experiences issues with their microphone during their speech
Resolved
NO
Trump or/and Biden post an AI-generated image on their social media accounts (with a note that it is AI-generated)
Resolved
NO
538 shows Haley at above 16.00% at any point in time in the national Republican primary polls ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ )
Resolved
YES
Marianne Williamson receives at least 5% of votes in one state
Resolved
NO
Trump, Biden or Haley eat a local delicacy on stage
Resolved
NO
Trump provides a serious hint about who his VP nominee will be
  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason.

  • All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve within 48 hours. Otherwise, I will resolve them after 48 hours as if they have not happened.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed. If you have questions regarding submissions, please tag the creator in the comment section.

  • Primary/Caucus results will be resolved according to the rules in my other markets.

  • Any mentions, says, comments etc. submissions will be resolved based on my own judgment if not mentioned otherwise in the submission. I will be fairly relaxed with words and phrasings. All of those statements can be made in a speech, interview, on social media, etc.

  • Any submissions that contain insults or strong political opinions toward politicians will be deleted by me at my own discretion. Submissions about these are allowed (e.g., 'Trump insults Haley as b****' is okay; 'Trump is a b***** on stage' would be deleted).

  • Everything that happens between March 5th 00:00 EST to March 6th 06:00 PST will be considered as Super Tuesday.

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