The relevant states' primaries are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia.
Utah holds a caucus and is therefore excluded.
The relevant criterion is the GOP state primary with the highest percentage of votes for Donald Trump. I will resolve this market on results from at least two sources, most likely using AP News, WSJ, and NYT. If there are any concerns or if the results are close, I will attempt to verify with local authorities.
I reserve the right to extend the closing date if necessary.
If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question.
1,000
3.00@traders California has counted 85% of the votes. Consequently, I can now resolve to Alaska, as it is impossible for Trump to surpass his percentage there.
I used NYT and AP-News to varify. Links are down below.
@PlasmaBallin alaska has a very high % of independents- so the people who register republican are really republican
@SemioticRivalry Oh, that makes a lot of sense. I was confused about how it was possible that a state that isn't nearly as solid red as, e.g., Alabama and that elected an anti-Trump Republican over the Trump-backed challenger in 2022 could possibly have such a ridiculously strong showing for Trump here. But the high number of independents would explain those results without preventing that type of showing.
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