MANIFOLD
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?
99
Ṁ300Ṁ16k
resolved Mar 10
100%99.0%
Iran - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
1.0%
Israel - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Resolves to which ever of the two top leaders steps down, is democratically removed from their office (Bibi), is killed, is removed from power via revolution, is removed from power via external invasion, or otherwise is no longer listed as the top leadership and figurehead of the primary governance of their country.

If resolution is unclear, will default first to the official position of the respective governments i.e. if it’s said that one of them is killed, I will not resolve until their country openly admits it even if there’s initial credible reporting and some group claiming credit, and if Netanyahu loses an election I will not resolve until the next Prime Minister is actually in office.

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Why is this not resolved yet?

@mods Looks like the creator’s inactive

bought Ṁ10 YES

This is a market of rapidly alternating certainties.

@KyleY resolves to Khamenei

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