Israel is widely understood to have 2 goals in its war with Iran: destroying Iran's nuclear program (primary) and regime change (secondary).
The market resolves to YES if either of the following are achieved by December 31, 2025:
Iran's nuclear weapons program is effectively ended, either via the destruction of nuclear sites/scientists or via a nuclear deal.
Iran's regime falls (e.g. in a revolution or military coup).
Some notes:
The first resolution condition is a bit vague, but I will resolve based on the consensus of reputable US and Israeli media whether or not Iran's nuclear weapons program is considered to be effectively nonexistent. One possible resolution would be a consensus that it will take at least a decade to rebuild the nuclear program to a pre-war capacity.
A change in leadership is not enough to resolve the second condition (e.g. death of ayatollah). It must be a change in regime.
Any nuclear deal that Israel views as insufficiently restraining Iran's ability to get a nuclear weapon (like the JCPOA) does not resolve to yes.
This market resolves whether the aims are achieved directly by Israel or not.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that due to the potential ambiguity of the resolution, they will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the consensus assessment at the end of the resolution period is that Iran's nuclear program has been set back several years but not destroyed, this market will likely resolve to NO.
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