Israel is widely understood to have 2 goals in its war with Iran: destroying Iran's nuclear program (primary) and regime change (secondary).
The market resolves to YES if either of the following are achieved by December 31, 2025:
Iran's nuclear weapons program is effectively ended, either via the destruction of nuclear sites/scientists or via a nuclear deal.
Iran's regime falls (e.g. in a revolution or military coup).
Some notes:
The first resolution condition is a bit vague, but I will resolve based on the consensus of reputable US and Israeli media whether or not Iran's nuclear weapons program is considered to be effectively nonexistent. One possible resolution would be a consensus that it will take at least a decade to rebuild the nuclear program to a pre-war capacity.
A change in leadership is not enough to resolve the second condition (e.g. death of ayatollah). It must be a change in regime.
Any nuclear deal that Israel views as insufficiently restraining Iran's ability to get a nuclear weapon (like the JCPOA) does not resolve to yes.
This market resolves whether the aims are achieved directly by Israel or not.
1,000I disagree with the two goals.
For the first "primary" goal, it never had the ability to actual end Iran's nuclear program. That's widely reported. I consider this a multi step goal, the initial step being to get the usa dragged in to end the nuclear program for them.
If there's a new regime instantly in Iran that's stable, I don't think that's what Israel wants. It would rather a civil war with many factions and instability like what happened in Syria. Therefore it's not a regime change, It's an unstable Iran that doesn't pose a threat while Israel continues to weaken it.
I would add another goal, to stop Iran's ability to manufacture new ballistic missiles and try to damage the existing stockpile.