Will the Reform Party win a nonzero number of seats in the 2024 election?
Basic
31
Ṁ5.4kJul 5
86%
chance
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1W
1M
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🗳️ The next UK General Election will be held on 2024-07-04.
🩵 Reform UK is the successor to the Brexit Party who is the successor to UKIP (kinda). Though massively successful in EU elections as the Brexit Party, they earned a mere 2% of the vote and 0 seats during 2019 HoC elections. Polls suggest they may win ~12% of the vote in 2024, though the UK's atrocious voting system should be kept in mind.
🎲 Resolution will be determined by official House of Commons totals after the July 4th election.
🃏 Resolves N/A in the unlikely but quite welcome event that the UK ceases to exist or is annexed by the United States before resolution.
🔗Source used will be the House of Commons Library.
Get Ṁ600 play money
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