Will the Reform Party win a nonzero number of seats in the 2024 election?
46
Ṁ1.3kṀ18kresolved Jul 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
🗳️ The next UK General Election will be held on 2024-07-04.
🩵 Reform UK is the successor to the Brexit Party who is the successor to UKIP (kinda). Though massively successful in EU elections as the Brexit Party, they earned a mere 2% of the vote and 0 seats during 2019 HoC elections. Polls suggest they may win ~12% of the vote in 2024, though the UK's atrocious voting system should be kept in mind.
🎲 Resolution will be determined by official House of Commons totals after the July 4th election.
🃏 Resolves N/A in the unlikely but quite welcome event that the UK ceases to exist or is annexed by the United States before resolution.
🔗Source used will be the House of Commons Library.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ872 | |
| 2 | Ṁ296 | |
| 3 | Ṁ207 | |
| 4 | Ṁ203 | |
| 5 | Ṁ159 |
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
11% chance
Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
52% chance
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
199
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
24% chance
Will Reform win the next UK election?
25% chance
Will the Democratic party win more than 240 US house seats in the 2026 election?
23% chance
If Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?
Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
3% chance
How many seats will be won by Estonian Reform Party in the next Estonian parliamentary election?
Will Reform drop their commitment to Proportional Representation in their next manifesto?
62% chance