What will happen first
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50%
A nuke (of any size) will be detonated above ground in a test orchestrated by humans.
41%
A nuclear missile is decommissioned in order for its fissile material to be used to power a nuclear power plant that provides power to an AI datacenter.
34%
A nuke (of any size) will be detonated in a conflict or as an act of terror by humans.
28%
An AI accident or malevolent act causes a nuke to detonate.
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