
When will OpenAI’s revenue run rate exceed $10B?
18
10kṀ15k2027
3%
Q3 2024
9%
Q4 2024
31%
Q1 2025
40%
Q2 2025
63%
Q3 2025
67%
Q4 2025
74%
Q1 2026
76%
Q2 2026
82%
Q3 2026
87%
Q4 2026
In situational awareness, Leopold Aschenbrenner writes:
“Reports suggest OpenAI was at a $1B revenue run rate in August 2023, and a $2B revenue run rate in February 2024. That’s roughly a doubling every 6 months. If that trend holds, we should see a ~$10B annual run rate by late 2024/early 2025, even without pricing in a massive surge from any next-generation model.”
Since the revenue run rate is likely an important influence in decisions to invest in upcoming AI generations, this question asks when the $10B revenue run rate will be exceeded by OpenAI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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