When will OpenAI’s revenue run rate exceed $10B?
21
10kṀ33k
resolved Jul 14
Resolved
NO
Q3 2024
Resolved
NO
Q4 2024
Resolved
NO
Q1 2025
Resolved
YES
Q2 2025
Resolved
YES
Q3 2025
Resolved
YES
Q4 2025
Resolved
YES
Q1 2026
Resolved
YES
Q2 2026
Resolved
YES
Q3 2026
Resolved
YES
Q4 2026

In situational awareness, Leopold Aschenbrenner writes:

“Reports suggest OpenAI was at a $1B revenue run rate in August 2023, and a $2B revenue run rate in February 2024. That’s roughly a doubling every 6 months. If that trend holds, we should see a ~$10B annual run rate by late 2024/early 2025, even without pricing in a massive surge from any next-generation model.”

Since the revenue run rate is likely an important influence in decisions to invest in upcoming AI generations, this question asks when the $10B revenue run rate will be exceeded by OpenAI.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,347
2Ṁ934
3Ṁ724
4Ṁ192
5Ṁ147
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy