In what year will OpenAI have a $1 Trillion market cap?
In what year will OpenAI have a $1 Trillion market cap?
30
1.1kṀ11662035
3%
2024
9%
2025
16%
2026
7%
2027
3%
2028
3%
2029
18%
2030
41%
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reposted 1y
This market seems badly calibrated to me, but if accurate the implications for Microsoft are massive and make it look like a very cheap investment. Satya Nadella is the more interesting character too compared to Sam Altman. He should get more Time POTY consideration perhaps?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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