
What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit?
19
1.4kṀ25212035
15%
2029
12%
They never have a profitable year
11%
2028
10%
2030
9%
2027
9%
7%
2032
7%
2031
7%
2033
6%
2026
4%
2024
4%
2025
This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.
Resolves when official financial reporting is available, showing their revenue minus expenses was positive for OpenAI, in any year. Resolves that year to "Yes" and all other options to "No".
We can add more years if they are still running but haven't made a profit yet.
If they go out of business first, then we resolve to "They never have a profitable year".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I added some more years (out to 2032), since the "Other" category had 26% probability on it. Edit...uh weird, I don't think it redistributed the probability from "Other", which is still at 26%? Oh well.
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