Hmm... I just realized that manifold rounds down. I bet 10 on yes, got a profit of "9%" but that rounded down to 0. Kind of annoying.

@CharliePye only in the UI. fractional mana is still granted under the hood

@Stralor oh cool, thanks!

@Leminspector

Passes in the house.

@parhizj Hastert rule violation!

No text of the bill yet House members are scheduled to leave town in 2 days. They are either going to have to bypass their 72 hour rule or stay for a vote on Saturday assuming the text is done today.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republican-aid-bills-ukraine-israel-rcna148025

Saturday night vote… text expected today … amendment process is a variable..

I hope this will resolve more accurately than the March one (not the one linked, the one by Rucker). I should have bet on the one linked here.

@SCM Imo the reasons the March iteration of this market resolved differently from Rucker's is exclusively because of the >$1 billion criteria, which Rucker's didn't not have. If not for that criteria, I would've posted the same appropriations bill and it would've been an even easier yes because this series of markets is explicit that House and Senate passing a bill is what matters.

Ongoing market with a Never option: https://manifold.markets/alh/when-will-this-congress-pass-a-new