Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of March 2024?
resolved Apr 1

This is similar to @Leminspector's question with a February deadline, which is similar to @Domer's original question.

I got very curious about this after the border/foreign assistance bill and the clean Israel aid both failed to pass. February may be too soon, but we'll see about March!

From Domer's question:

Package must have >$1b in new aid to Ukraine by Jan 31st [edit: March 31st]. Same bill must be passed by both the Senate and House to count. Will not wait for POTUS to sign it for YES, if it passes both chambers & is then en route to Biden, YES instantly wins.

If >$1b in new Ukraine aid does not pass by Jan 31st [edit: March 31st], NO wins.

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@Unown I'm going to use Washington, D.C.'s timezone of EDT (UTC-4).

Out of curiosity, do you think that will be relevant to the resolution?

@MichaelSchmatz It does look like a NO resolution at this point.

@MichaelSchmatz What time zone will be used to determine the end of March?

@Finn I agree that it is very unlikely that legislation will pass by the end of March but I want to wait until the end of March to resolve the market.

This can probably be resolved NO now. Today was the last day Congress was in session this month (see the official House schedule here), and I don't think legislation can be voted on or passed when in recess.

A big holder just sold his NO shares, probably based on this kind of news, but Axios makes it clear that this can only happen when Congress reconvenes in April. For those with Mana on hand this market is now totally free money.

@Finn Actually, scratch that since the President can technically call special sessions, although the last time this happened was in 1948. It still is basically free Mana though.

bought Ṁ500 NO

Congress will be in session for four days next week, and then that's a wrap for the month. Odds are probably closer to 2% that they get anything passed

@Finn And the fact that Biden feels the need to do this suggests that he doesn't see a more substantial package coming any time soon:



Behind the scenes, Johnson has met privately with House Republicans who have been trying to build support for a new bipartisan foreign aid package that includes restrictions on the US border with Mexico. And now House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul is taking a lead role in trying to finalize a proposal and build consensus within the conference as part of a push for floor action by late March or April.

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