When will this Congress pass a new Ukraine aid deal?
34
472
1K
resolved Apr 24
100%98.0%
April 2024
0.1%
March 2024
0.8%
May 2024
0.1%
June 2024
0.5%
Never (the current session ends before such a bill is passed)
0.3%
July 2024
0.3%Other

Similar to existing questions, but on an ongoing basis. I will resolve the previous month to NO at the start of the next, and YES to Never at the end of the current congressional session if such a bill was not passed. New months will be added as existing months are resolved.

Resolution similar to @Domer's original question:

Package must have >$1b in new aid to Ukraine. Same bill must be passed by both the Senate and House to count. Will not wait for POTUS to sign it for YES, if it passes both chambers & is then en route to Biden, YES instantly wins.

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bought Ṁ25 April 2024 YES

@traders The Senate has approved the same package proposed by the House. Resolved to April 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/23/us/politics/senate-aid-package-ukraine-israel-taiwan.html

@traders The House has successfully voted for an aid package. Just need the Senate to approve the bill and then this can resolve.

Looking at the market so far, you lot think this will happen this month!

@alh It'll very likely happen by midweek, I suspect.

As this is a linked multi market I can't resolve options on their own, only all at once. In any case, March 2024 will resolve NO.

bought Ṁ30 Never (the current s... YES

If Mike Johnson wanted a deal to pass it would have already happened. I wish I was wrong.

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