We've seen a drastic shift in the US politicalsphere from 2010's to 2020's. How drastic do you think things can go?
All baby boomers would have reached retirement age by around 2030.
This will resolve in "yes" if the US army is mobilized to deal with domestic terrorism or part of government. Resolves in "no" otherwise.
Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
Deployment of the US Army to deal with domestic terrorism or part of the government → Yes
Deployment of the National Guard to deal with political unrest or enforce martial law only if they are serving the federal government's dictates → Yes
Otherwise → No
Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification Definitions:
Event Type: The market now only considers a revolution or civil war.
Objective: The event must aim at controlling the country, achieving regional independence, or changing government policy.
Duration: The event must span at least one month.
Casualty Threshold: There must be a minimum of 1000 confirmed deaths by year end.
1,000So if the US Army is deployed against a school shooter, a lone wolf attacker, domestic gang or fringe terrorist group, this will resolve yes?
I don't think that makes sense, as these things happen with fair frequency and they are not exactly in the league of civil wars or revolutions
Insurgency may be, was killdozer guy an insurgency? What about J6?
@barbarous you are correct and that is not the spirit of the question I am trying to ask. I have edited the title to only include revolution or civil war. Let me further specify that such an event would be defined as with the goal of controlling the country, achieve regional independence or change government policy with an intensity that spans at least a month with a minimum of 1000 confirmed deaths by year end.
@StephenStroup so long as they serve the dictates of the federal government, then yes. Otherwise, no.