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Hi all, thanks for trading, this was my first market and I've learnt a lot - mostly I need to really set out the conditions! I've resolved to NO according to https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/index.html?lang=en and a mix of other online sources. Let me know any thoughts, thanks!
@Lay284 thanks for making the market! Writing resolution criteria that cover everything is definitely pretty tricky, but I think it's ok sometimes to start with less precise criteria and update them in response to requests for clarification.
If the initial criteria are precise that's great, but people asking for clarifications is just a fact of life, and doesn't mean there's anything wrong with your initial description. :)
These happen all the time but no idea if they count for this market
https://apnews.com/article/japan-earthquake-minor-damage-5b89831fb0340c08dbd371365ee73a7e
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/26/national/earthquake-jolts-tokyo-no-tsunami-threat/
@AlQuinn I would think that it would have to measure >5 in Tokyo to count, regardless of where its epicenter was.
@AlQuinn Hi, sorry for the embarrassingly late reply. This is a great question and sadly I won't be counting regions outside Tokyo prefecture and will indeed go with epicenter. I should of been more clear and stated I will use this site to judge https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/index.html?lang=en. (Sorry I know you betted the week after your question, I'm new to Manifold and wonder if there's a way to refund your bet if it resolves to No?)
@Lay284 No worries, 90% of markets are ambiguous, and it's hard to account for every consideration. If I don't understand a market I won't bet more than I'm willing to lose based on my misunderstanding. I'm out with something like a M1 profit here so nothing to refund! Thanks though!