Will there be an earthquake of at least 8.0 magnitude by July 15?
13
100Ṁ1273resolved Jul 17
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ35 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5)
63% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
7% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
11% chance
Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?
34% chance