When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?
When will the next earthquake that is greater than magnitude 9.0 and japan seismic intensity scale reach 7 hit japan?
15
335Ṁ4192065
5%
2023-2024
39%
2025-2034
31%
2035-2044
10%
2045-2054
6%
2055-2064
5%
2065 or later
4%
According to mainichi.jp, the probability of a major Nanki Trough earthquake is now estimated at around 30% within 10 years, 50-60% within next 20 years, 70 to 80% within 30 years and around 90% within next 40 years.
This question will resolve by the official release of the japan meteorological agancy (www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake) that shows the magnitude reach 9.0 and maximum seismic intensity reach 7.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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