According to mainichi.jp, the probability of a major Nanki Trough earthquake is now estimated at around 30% within 10 years, 50-60% within next 20 years, 70 to 80% within 30 years and around 90% within next 40 years.

This question will resolve by the official release of the japan meteorological agancy (www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake) that shows the magnitude reach 9.0 and maximum seismic intensity reach 7.