Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the United States military uses (detonates) one or more nuclear weapons targeting Iran's Pickaxe Mountain (Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā) facility at any point between 12:00 AM UTC on November 4, 2026, and 11:59 PM UTC on November 10, 2026, inclusive.
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be determined by credible public reporting or official announcements from the following sources:
If there is no verified report of a nuclear strike against this location within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to NO. Conventional strikes or strikes using non-nuclear munitions will not qualify for a YES resolution.
Background
Pickaxe Mountain (Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā) is located in Iran's Zagros range, roughly 2 kilometers south of the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The site houses a heavily fortified, deep underground tunnel complex widely believed to support Iran's nuclear program. Analysts estimate that parts of the complex are buried 80 to 100 meters beneath solid granite, placing them potentially out of reach for conventional earth-penetrating bunker-buster bombs and fueling debate over whether the U.S. would employ tactical nuclear options in a hypothetical strike.
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1,000