Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025?
72
1.3kṀ30k
Dec 31
89%
chance

A highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarm, for the purposes of this market, might look like the following:

  • Someone registers a bunch of accounts on various social media sites/fora (or buys/hacks a bunch of existing ones)

  • That someone uses AI to create appropriate credible personas for them (ie, if the account's brand is knitting, it mostly sticks to knitting, but it also just so happens to have an interest in biomedical science, or geopolitics, or whatever the actual payload target is, and it credibly establishes this interest in its posting history for quite some time, well before it is "called in" for a strike

  • Each account has its own unique voice that is driven by AI

  • Each account has an established timezone its supposed to be posting from, and it sticks to that posting schedule

And then at some point, Mr. Someone puts out the bat signal and all these posters -- who just so happen to have been credible long term posters of special targeted communities, descend on someone who is wrong on the internet.

If we see credible proof of something that mostly* pattern-matches to this, and it happens before the end of 2025, this market resolves as YES.

*It can be missing a characteristic or two (ie, they goof and giveaway their timezone, or they never call it in for a specific strike, they just use it "build consensus" in their direction constantly through background chatter), but the absolutely essential characteristics are the aged account aspect, and that each one is fairly differentiated/customized to its persona, and not just all blasting out with the same voice.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy