By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
26
1kṀ2052
2026
9%
chance
7

From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."


"I’m truly talking about the near future here. I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now. But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray. I think it could be near-term."

Resolves to YES when:

  • Dario Amodei makes a public claim that AI models have sufficiently met this condition.

  • OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta makes a public claim that AI models have sufficiently met this condition.

Resolves to NO on January 1, 2026 and the YES conditions are not met.

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bought Ṁ500 NO

AI can't run a vending machine therefore AI can't afford server costs

@NivlacM also only Grok has enough evil in the bones to exist on a computer surreptitiously

The first resolution criteria is the only reason I'm not betting it down to zero.

@ProjectVictory do you still believe AI will be able to survive in the wild?

@NivlacM Huh? I stated the opposite, I said the only reason I'm not betting much on no is that it resolves based on some guy's statements.

@ProjectVictory oh, whoops!

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