Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
50
1.7kṀ14k
2030
91%
chance

This market resolves YES, if, as a direct result of the Vesuvius Challenge, and all downstream discovery/actitivities, a work is discovered and recovered that fulfills these criteria:

1) It is determined to be authentic

2) At least 90% of its textual content is confirmed legibly recovered

3) The work in question was known to us to have existed, but we don't currently have more than 10% of it

An example of a known lost work is Claudius' history of the Etruscans:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrrhenika

If not a single such work is recovered by 2030, this market resolves NO.

EDIT: see comments. Has to be at least 1,000 words long in its complete form and see comments for complete works found within documents that are multi-work collections that are themselves incomplete

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy