Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2032?
46
1kṀ35322032
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Long-term clone of this market with a closing date 10 years out instead of 3:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-contaminant-hypothesis-of
-----
The contaminant theory of modern obesity posits that environmental contaminants cause the modern plague of obesity and explains why reasonable intuitions like “calories in, calories out” aren’t sufficient:
https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/
But is it true? In ten years let’s see if expert consensus (judged as experts I personally deem to be credible and worth listening to) accepts the hypothesis. For my standards this will require a burden of solid evidence backed replicated research.
Closes early if consensus is reached early.
Apr 5, 11:28am: Tags
#Obesity #Medicine #Science #SlimeMoldTimeMold #Chemistry #Nutrition
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the global prevalence of obesity peak before 2050?
72% chance
[Metaculus] Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
18% chance
Will public health consensus regarding diet/health meaningfully shift toward the theories of Ray Peat before 2030?
33% chance
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the US obesity epidemic?
Will US obesity decrease by more than 1% before 2030?
80% chance
Will I ever be above 20% body fat before 2035?
35% chance
More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035?
27% chance
Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024?
31% chance
Will less than 30% of US adults be obese by EOY 2030?
26% chance
Will glyphosate (Roundup) be shown to be one of the primary factors in the increase in US childhood obesity by 2030?
10% chance