Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2025?
79
1kṀ8010resolved May 13
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The contaminant theory of modern obesity posits that environmental contaminants cause the modern plague of obesity and explains why reasonable intuitions like “calories in, calories out” aren’t sufficient:
https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-part-i-mysteries/
But is it true? In five years let’s see if expert consensus (judged as experts I personally deem to be credible and worth listening to) accepts the hypothesis. For my standards this will require a burden of solid evidence backed replicated research.
Closes early if consensus is reached early.
Close date updated to 2025-04-09 11:59 pm
Apr 2, 9:33pm: updated to three years as I screwed up the title, changing closing date to match that.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ71 | |
2 | Ṁ44 | |
3 | Ṁ32 | |
4 | Ṁ26 | |
5 | Ṁ26 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the global prevalence of obesity peak before 2050?
72% chance
[Metaculus] Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
18% chance
Will public health consensus regarding diet/health meaningfully shift toward the theories of Ray Peat before 2030?
33% chance
Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024?
31% chance
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the US obesity epidemic?
Will US obesity decrease by more than 1% before 2030?
80% chance
More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035?
27% chance
Will the scientific consensus in 2035 be that health concerns over 5G cellular networks were completely unfounded?
92% chance
Will glyphosate (Roundup) be shown to be one of the primary factors in the increase in US childhood obesity by 2030?
10% chance
Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2025?
19% chance